The future of newspaper

Introduction

Newspapers are not better than iPad except for one, killing flies. This is a video from YouTube showing how powerful iPad is. Recently with the sharp development of e-readers, the prediction that newspapers will fail in the competition and demise in the near future is rising again. Will newspapers survive or be extinct? In this report, I will share two papers discussing the future of newspapers and put aside my own point of view.

In <Traditional Media in the Digital Media>, Douglas and John analyze the situation in two correlated markets in mass media, consumers and advertisers, to explore newspaper future. They argue the main reason of decline in circulation is that new generations do not consider newspaper readership as their first choice. A Magid study is cited and reveals the relationship between above-line-media and below-the-line media is correlated, indicating the synergy of these two media could play a vital role in shaping consumers’ habits. They assert that the fact 12.2 percent Americans swift to online media does not present massive shift to online media.  They also predict the future by looking at reading habit of current long-term Internet users, which implies consumption habits of new generation are not so significant to traditional media. When referring to advertisement market, they insist newspaper still earn more money than online media despite growth rate will slow down. [1] All in all, they hold a positive attitude towards the future of newspaper.

<Shifts in Newspaper Advertising: expenditures and their implication for the future for newspapers> provides another perspective, in which newspapers are totally treated as a commercial product. The author goes back to the history of newspaper advertising from 1950 to 2005 in US, and predicts that the tendency of newspaper advertising is neither as awful as some observers said, nor as positive enough as to overlook. Newspaper will step to the decline stage of its life cycle in 21 century, suggesting that the advertising revenue will plateau and decrease in the future. [2] But as media products also differ from other ones, the life cycle of newspaper has been much longer than other industries. 

Conclusion

As for me, when talking about the future of newspaper, some issues should be identified in advance. First, what is newspaper? Is online newspaper or Newsday on iPad still a newspaper? Second, how long is this future, in 50 years or 5000 years? Here in this report, what we are discussing is traditional print newspaper which utilizes paper as its carrier, is publicized as scheduled and delivered by distribution personnel. Those media presented on screen distinguish themselves from print newspapers. In my opinion, in the near future newspaper will still play an important role in social life; however, it is really facing a risk of extinction considering its distant future. 

It is too early to say newspaper will demise in 5 or even 50 years. Newspaper has a long history and favorable news traditional, which provide newspapers more experience and ability to survive in recent shift. To be more specific, on the one hand, newspapers are more concentrating on content and becoming more transparent, responsive and efficient. On the other hand, they are introducing the unique selling proposition and new techniques which appeal to both readers and advertisers. [3] Research also shows current situation of newspaper is not as bad as someone predicted. Despite decline in circulation and advertising sale, newspaper is of significance player in local news. In addition, newspaper and Internet use are positively correlated, which means newspaper use increases as one’s Internet use goes up. [4] Moreover, development of newspaper is different from all over the world, which means newspaper has more space to grow in developing countries.

Nevertheless, print newspaper has been losing its territory and, I would say, it will probably disappear as a traditional print media in the long term. Newspaper inherently is a source-consuming industry, thus I consider it is not as sustainable as electric media in the remote future. Someone may insist paper provides more comfortable reading experience, but the fact is increasing new generations are more expecting to grab information online. Thus what will happen when new generations are grown up in a digital society? It would be more likely for them to choose electrical media rather than print media as their main source of collecting news. I am not saying paper or paper reading will die; what I believe is the function of newspaper as a timely publicized media will demise. Neither its readership nor advertisement revenue could save its life. The statement from chairman of New York Times that it will stop print newspaper sometime in the future [5] becomes a signal, which it is more and more difficult for newspaper to maintain its fee-based print edition. More seriously, the concept of ubiquitous computing introduced by Mark Weiser is turning into realistic, whose main idea is “specialized elements of hardware and software, connected by wires, radio waves and infrared, will be so ubiquitous that no one will notice their presence.” [6] Wireless connection is helping computer technology achieve this goal. The media shift happening nowadays is proved to be an essential one, which would combine all the media in one platform, screen. So where is the outlet of print newspaper? I could not find it.

Reference

[1] Traditional Media in the Digital Media: Data about news habits and advertiser spending lead to a reassessment of media's prospects and possibilities, Douglas Ahlers and John Hessen, Nieman Reports, September 1, 2005.

[2] Shifts in Newspapers Advertising Expenditure and Their Implications for the Future of Newspapers, Robert G. Picard, Journalism Studies, Volume 9, Issue 5 October 2008.

[3] Newspapers Go For Advertising! Challenges and opportunities in a changing media environment, Katrien Berte and Els De Bens, Journalism Studies, Volume 9, Issue 5, 2008.

 [4] Internet Impact on Traditional Media Use for News: 2002 and 2004, Journalism Studies Division, ICA, May 2007.

[5] Sulzberger Concedes: 'We Will Stop Printing the New York Times Sometime in the Future', Henry Blodget, CEO of Business Insider, Huffingtonpost, September 9, 2010.

[6] The Computer for the 21st Century, Mark Weiser, Scientific American 265, No. 3, September 1991.